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Journal Articles Science Year : 2018

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Patricia M. Anderson
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  • PersonId : 846117
Julio L. Betancourt
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Mark M. Bush
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John Dodson
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Mary E. Edwards
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William D. Gosling
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Simon Haberle
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  • PersonId : 861059
Sara C. Hotchkiss
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Brian Huntley
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Sarah J. Ivory
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A. Peter Kershaw
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Soo-Hyun Kim
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Claudio Latorre
Kam-Biu Liu
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Yao Liu
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  • PersonId : 1003238
Anatoly V. Lozhkin
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Matt S. Mcglone
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Arata Momohara
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Patricio I. Moreno
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Caiming Shen
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Janelle Stevenson
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Hikaru Takahara
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John Tipton
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Chengyu Weng
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Abstract

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Domains

Global Changes
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Dates and versions

hal-01870934 , version 1 (10-09-2018)

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Connor Nolan, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Judy R. M. Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, et al.. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science, 2018, 361 (6405), pp.920-923. ⟨10.1126/science.aan5360⟩. ⟨hal-01870934⟩
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