The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate - Aix-Marseille Université Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year : 2022

The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate

Abstract

The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore model accounts for both properties when interest-rate movements are driven, in a significant way, by self-fulfilling belief shocks that redistribute income away from lenders and to borrowers during booms. The credit-based nature of such self-fulfilling equilibria is shown to be essential: the dynamic correlation between current loanable funds rate and future aggregate economic activity depends critically on the property that the interest rate is state-contingent. Bayesian estimation of our benchmark DSGE model on US data shows that the model driven by redistribution shocks results in a better fit to the data than both standard RBC models and Kiyotaki-Moore type models with unique equilibrium.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
WP 2022 - Nr 08.pdf (732.97 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)

Dates and versions

hal-03669938 , version 1 (17-05-2022)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-03669938 , version 1

Cite

Patrick Pintus, Yi Wen, Xiaochuan Xing. The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate. 2022. ⟨hal-03669938⟩
55 View
45 Download

Share

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More