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Article Dans Une Revue European Economic Review Année : 2023

Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis

Résumé

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under varying degrees of employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.

Dates et versions

hal-04167343 , version 1 (20-07-2023)

Identifiants

Citer

Andreas Dibiasi, Samad Sarferaz. Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis. European Economic Review, 2023, 153, pp.104383. ⟨10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104383⟩. ⟨hal-04167343⟩
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