Scenarios of Futures
Résumé
Context and objectives. This action-research was supported by a local authority (South ofFrance) as part of a prospective approach to the year 2050. Specifically, based on Bain’s et al.(2013) work, the aim was to explore five scenarios of possible futures incorporating climatechange and its consequences (Proximity, Business as usual, Low carbon, Smart territory andResilience, Environmental and social crisis) in terms of perceptions, representations andacceptability of each scenario. We focused on rural and peri-urban populations, who are oftenignored by public policies. Method. The action-research was carried out in two stages: (1) asurvey (331 complete responses) in which one of the five scenarios was implemented, makingit possible to take stock of a number of aspects of everyday life in 2020 (mobility, placeattachment, connection to nature, …) and in 2050 and (2) a series of focus groups (with ruralcitizens) using the persona method. Results. Survey : The Low Carbon and the Proximityscenarios generate the most expectations in terms of social justice, stimulation, tradition andpreservation of the environment. Conversely, the Business and Smart Territory scenariospromote a mirrored vision of society's values: social justice is a less important value, and soare environmental issues. It should be noted that the importance attached to the values ofpower and resources does not seem to vary according to the scenario. Overall, the Resiliencescenario seems to generate projections of a future in between. Focus groups: As the results ofthe survey suggested, the Smart Territory scenario shows the influence of digital technologyand the retreat of individual freedoms, the Proximity scenario illustrates a future that could bedescribed as empowerment. In contrast, the Resilience scenario generates reactions ofapathy and piecemeal adaptation rather than a proactive dynamic.
Domaines
Sciences de l'Homme et SociétéOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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